Poll Watch

I don't follow or blog about polls much, mostly because it's early and also because people like Kos already do. But I have been interested in the presidential race lately because it is so close (if the polling data is to be believed). Fox has it 43-42 for Bush, Rasmussen pegs it even at 45 each, and Zogby says Kerry has a 47-44 edge. An amazingly tight race, it would appear.

I think what's more telling than all these national polls, however, is an analysis of the Electoral College situation. According to the Moonie Times/UPI:

An analysis of statewide presidential polls published Friday by The Hotline shows Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., ahead in the electoral college.

The Hotline's study of reputable statewide polls conducted since January 1, 2004, has Kerry holding an overall lead in 13 states containing 204 electoral votes. President George W. Bush is currently leading in 16 states and has a total of 174 electoral votes out of the 270 necessary for election.

In states where either candidate leads by more than the poll's margin of error, Kerry is ahead in seven states with a total of 123 electoral votes while Bush leads in eight states with a total of 86 electoral votes.

Again, it's wicked early and Bush's huge warchest combined with external factors can certainly derail Kerry, but this seems to show a slightly less-tight race in our guy's favor.

No matter what, it's hard to imagine that a sitting President with $180 million in the bank is not showing greater strength. I guess that's why he has to go negative out of the gate--it's not like Bush has a positive record to run on.

ntodd

[Update: edited a bit to clean things up.]  ¶ 10:09 AM