Dohiyi Mir
    In Which NTodd Says His Peace

Friday, November 14, 2003
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A Dose Of Reality

From the Center for Strategic and International Studies (PDF):

Even under the best case scenario...the US will have to leave an Iraq that is far from stable in political and economic terms, and where massive internal forces will still be at work that will lead to at least some crises after the US departs. No other society with anything like the challenges Iraq will face has moved smoothly and easily towards progress and success. In fact, it seems almost certain that the leadership Iraq has on the day the US transfers sovereignty will not survive for more than few years at most unless a new strong man emerges.

Put differently, the US cannot hope to achieve victory in the form of creating some shining example that will fully transform Iraq, much less transform the Middle East. This was at best a noble neoconservative fantasy. More practically, it has always been a rather silly one.

Keep in mind that this is not coming from some wacko Lefty crackpots, but the folks Rummy himself sent to Iraq back in July. They've been frank in their assessments over the past few months, and what they say has always been spot on and really proven the anti-war crowd right. I honestly wish we'd been wrong.


PS--When I read stuff like this, it makes me think that what I wrote the other day is more and more correct.

[Update: fixed bad link in the postscript. Thanks to faithful reader Steve for catching my error.] 

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