Dohiyi Mir
    In Which NTodd Says His Peace

Wednesday, June 25, 2003
Go to the new DM blog.

Still a Long Climb for Dean

The latest Gallup Poll says Lieberman Continues to Pace Democratic Field:

Twenty percent of Democrats in the United States prefer Lieberman for the party's 2004 presidential nomination. Lieberman has a five-point lead over Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, large enough to be statistically significant. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, at 13%, is close behind Gephardt. Lieberman, Gephardt, and Kerry form a top tier of Democratic candidates, as no other candidate reaches double-digit support, on this or the last two Gallup polls. The second tier of candidates is closely bunched, with North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Sharpton at 7% and Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean at 6%. Long-shot Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich is supported by just 1% of Democrats.

The silver lining for Ho-Ho? The poll was conducted June 12-18. That's a few days before Dean's MTP appearance and his official announcement speech. I'll be curious to see if that bumps up his recognition and national numbers.

Also interesting is this:

The poll also asked Americans who they are more likely to vote for in 2004 -- George W. Bush or the "Democratic Party's candidate for president." Fifty percent of Americans say Bush, and 38% say the Democratic candidate. (Among registered voters, the figures are 51% and 39%, respectively.) These figures have changed little in recent months, after showing slight movement toward Bush after the start of the Iraq war.
While these results give an early read on Bush's re-election chances, it is unclear at this point how predictive they are of the actual outcome of next November's election. Comparable data are available only for the elder George Bush, who stood at 51% support (versus 30% for the Democrat) in June 1991. Bush fell below 50% support in October 1991, and was in the mid-40s in January 1992, 10 months before being defeated for re-election by Bill Clinton.

What was that about history not exactly repeating itself?


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A non-violent, counter-dominant, left-liberal, possibly charismatic, quasi anarcho-libertarian Quaker's take on politics, volleyball, and other esoterica.

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