Why Kerry Can't Replace Bush

The polls have not been kind to erstwhile front-runner John Kerry, so the Democratic presidential candidate has settled on a novel solution: make 'em up.

"Let me tell you something," he said Thursday on the CBS "Early Show." "John McCain was 30 points behind Bush in New Hampshire at this point in time." The point was clear: Kerry, far behind Howard Dean in New Hampshire, would have a come-from-behind victory, just as McCain did over George W. Bush in 2000.

Well, not exactly. At this time four years ago, an American Research Group poll found McCain with a 37 percent to 30 percent lead over Bush in New Hampshire. And a Franklin Pierce College poll put McCain's lead at 15 points.

This is not the first time Kerry has cited fanciful polling. A month ago, Kerry was asked at a debate about polls showing Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) ahead of all the actual Democratic candidates. "I saw a poll the other day that showed me about 15 points ahead of her," Kerry replied. But his campaign could produce no such poll.

And that blooper came just a day after Kerry said on CNN's "Inside Politics," "I am not as far behind in New Hampshire today as Al Gore was to Bill Bradley four years ago." Hmm. In November 1999, a Dartmouth College poll gave Gore a 7-point lead and a Newsweek poll put Gore's advantage at 10 points.

Seems that with all that turnover at the Kerry campaign, the research department is getting a bit thin.