Dohiyi Mir
    In Which NTodd Says His Peace

Tuesday, December 23, 2003
Go to the new DM blog.

Interesting WaPo-ABC Poll


Asked whether they would vote for Bush or an unnamed Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, 50 percent of those surveyed said Bush while 41 percent said the Democrat.
Asked to choose among the nine candidates for the Democratic nomination, 31 percent of registered Democrats said they favored Dean, up from 20 percent a week ago and 15 percent in October. No other Democrat reached double digits.
The Post-ABC poll suggests that Dean's recent surge has come disproportionately from Democrats who do not closely identify with their party. In mid-October, Dean claimed the support of one in six Democratic-leaning independents and an equal proportion of party rank and file. Today, he gets significantly more support from independent Democrats (35 percent) than he does from party faithful (26 percent).

As a candidate in the general election, Dean starts well behind Bush in the public's estimation. In an early test of strength, 55 percent of those surveyed said that if the election were held today, they would vote to reelect the president, and 37 percent said they would favor Dean. No other Democrat was tested against Bush in the Post-ABC poll.

A few interesting things:

1) Dean is polling about the same against Bush as he was for the past few months. Consistent, not losing any ground against the incumbent.

2) Dean is polling about the same as the unnamed Dem (MOE +/- 3%). Damn it, this is yet another poll that didn't match any other Dem against Bush. Regardless, Dean has been polling about the same as the other Dems in various polls, giving lie to the "unelectable" meme.

3) While lots of pundits focus on Dean's alleged weakness in foreign affairs, the most important issue for Dems is overwhelmingly the economy (51%), followed by health care and education (13%). Given other polling, I don't think that's too far from the American mainstream.

I'm also encouraged by the fact that Dean is motivating more independent Dems. Shows that he's striking a chord with people who will be very important in the general election. Really, extremely positive results for a challenger 11 months from the election. Still lots of work to do, so let's get to it!


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A non-violent, counter-dominant, left-liberal, possibly charismatic, quasi anarcho-libertarian Quaker's take on politics, volleyball, and other esoterica.

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