Kim Isn't Crazy

What I've been saying all along:

Kim Jong-il has been accused of being some sort of a dangerous nut case, erratic, paranoid, mendacious, a loose cannon. His behavior at one time or another has displayed all of those characteristics. But he and his father have ruled North Korea for 58 years - not a mean feat, however horrendous for the ruled. And since last October, when confronted by the United States with evidence of a clandestine uranium-enrichment program, the Kim regime has once again displayed remarkable survival tactics under adverse circumstances.
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His regime, by almost any moral standard, is utterly reprehensible, but the logic of his survival strategy and actions, as demonstrated yet again during and after the just-concluded Beijing six-way talks, is impeccable.

Last October, it appears, Kim had concluded that US President George W Bush would sooner or later attack Iraq and get rid of Saddam Hussein - and that he might well be next in line.
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Kim's logic is simple: If the US really is intent on getting rid of me Saddam-style, then I must keep my nukes - the one thing Saddam didn't have and which sank him. And Kim's logic has the practical advantage that neither China nor South Korea is likely to agree to sanctions, even if it proves difficult to reconvene negotiations or future negotiations formally break down.

He's always going to do what it takes to survive. Our demonizing him doesn't help, just as it didn't help with that other cagey dictator whose fate Kim watched extremely closely. Unfortunately, Kim's playing his cards very well.

ntodd  ¶ 8:43 AM